|
On eBay's Weekly Performance Report, Where Does China Rank?
Is The $100 Million Dollar Investment In China A Good Deal For eBay Shareholders?
According to the Wall Street Journal, eBay operates in 33 countries and 50 % of its revenue comes from outside the US. The WSJ did not disclose how much of eBay's profits come from foreign operations. It did disclose eBay is investing $100 million in China. Is this the best investment for $100 million? Let's look at a couple ways of answering this question.
The Stock Market Is One Report Card On A Public Company's Performance. Right now It appears eBay is getting a near failing grade. The finance section of Yahoo shows eBay's stock on August 12th to be about $41.00 per share. In the last 12 months it has been as high as $59.00. Now I don't own eBay's stock and I am not a stock broker or investment advisor. However, I am generally aware the market has been doing fairly well in the past year. That being the case, it appears to me the market is saying it doesn't like what eBay is doing. Let's look closer.
eBay's P/E today is about 60. That says investors view this as a growth stock which brings me back to China and to the quetion should eBay be there. Now I don't know for sure because I do not have the projections on China available to Meg Whitman and eBay's Directors.
From another angle, a recent TV special lead the viewers to believe a more than moderate level of dissatisfaction exists between eBay and a number of its largest merchandise sellers. All of them were in the US. There is a business principle that says you nurture the portion of the business that is your foundation. Since the US is the largest audience for eBay and the one generating the most profit, I wonder what the result would be if they invested $100 million more in the US market to further fuel that market's performance.
I am thinking eBay is betting the $100 million being invested in China is more likely to rationalize that 60 P/E than a comparable investment in the US and other profitable countries. With a population of 100 million and only 6% having Internet access, the growth rate potenial in China is much higher than in the US. However, it is unlikely China will catch the spending power of the US. As a side bar, while communicating with several very successful business people from Australia and the UK, the consistent message for people in their country was to promote their on line business in the US since 90% of the on-line revenue comes from the US market. These are countries with much higher earnings per person than those in China.
It is management's job to maximize shareholder value. Meg Whitman according to Forbes is one of the few self made billionaires. I am delighted she is being rewarded with that level of prosperity. Her leadership has resulted in huge financial rewards for many people. She remains CEO and as CEO, her job is to continue to grow shareholder value. In the public market shareholder value is measured every day by the perfect sysem of the stock market. Now I don't know if the China investment is good or bad. But today's stock price of $40 vs. a high of $59 in the last 12 months may be an indication of the answer there are concerns over parts of eBay's business.
CEO leadership need to keep in mind that return on investment is the priority. If China represents a terrific return on investment in a reasonable amount of time, then that growth opportunity should be pursued. I am sure Meg has perfomance milestones time phased to this month as well as this year and beyond. I am confident she has those projections and is measuring actual vs. plan. I am sure she is addressing the variances. The only thing that troubles me is what the stock price is saying.
| Steve Pohlit is a CPA has his MBA and has been the CFO of several major domestic and international companies. Today Steve is an expert business consultant focused on helping companies improve their business performance including growing profits, revenues and customers. For a FREE 6 week mini course where you will receive 10 easy to implement action steps guaranteed to increase business revenue in profits by at least 30% in the next 90 days, please visit www.StevePohlit.com All articles published by Steve unless specifically restricted may be freely published with this resource box in tact. | |